Lay betting can be a fantastic way to maximise football profits. After all, when laying a team, the consumer has both the draw and the other team running for them. Two out of three outcomes will result in a lay bet being successful, and therefore it is easy to see why it is becoming more and more popular.
Lay betting refers to backing a selection NOT to win an event. If we laid Derby County at Nottingham Forest at 3.0 for £10, then a Nottingham Forest victory, or a draw, would see us net £10 profit. In the unlikely event of a Derby County victory, we would lose £20 (£30-£10 stake). If individuals are confident that one team will not win, but are unsure if the match will be a draw, or a victory for the other team, then lay betting is a great option. Teams that have had a large number of matches in recent weeks can make good lays. The options for these sides are to use players who are tired and not 100%, or rotate and use back up personnel. The top teams can rotate with ease, but the less fortunate sides have a smaller nucleus of key players who are difficult to replace.
The lower leagues can provide some fantastic laying value. Although liquidity isn’t quite as strong as in the top divisions, there is normally plenty enough for individuals to make a decent profit when they can accurately lay at the lower levels. In the Premier League, La Liga etc. there is so much information available in the public domain that makes gaining an advantage a very difficult task. The further down the rung you go, the more chance there is of finding an edge. Players are more accessible, and local knowledge, or inside information can be very useful. For example, if a couple of key players are likely to be out for team, prior to a game at the weekend in League Two, and the information has spread just locally, then there may be an opportunity to make money from laying the side.
Furthermore, in the lower leagues, less research and analyst is conducted, and therefore a real student of the smaller teams, and someone with a good grasp of value, could make money from laying at this level.
There are different staking plans that can be used when laying football teams. A straight up level stakes approach is easy to follow – simply offer the same stake for each bet. The liability varies due to different odds for each game. The other main approach would be to offer a % of the betting bank as a liability. For example, going back to the Forest v Derby match, if you had a £2000 betting bank and wanted to risk 5% of it (£100), the lay stake on Derby would be £50. If you then decided to lay Derby again in their next fixture, a home match to Ipswich, and they were 2.0, the lay stake would be £100, as this would still represent a risk of 5% of the betting bank.